According to Xinhua News Agency, According to the latest statistics released by Taiwan’s disease control department, Since the beginning of summer in May, As of 15 September, The total number of confirmed cases of dengue fever in Taiwan was 10 384, There have been more than 10,000 cases, The epidemic is mainly concentrated in the southern part of Taiwan. Guangdong CDC then issued the latest dengue fever risk warning. The warning points out that since this year, due to the serious epidemic situation of dengue fever in Southeast Asian countries and Taiwan, the number of imported cases in Guangdong Province has been significantly higher than that in the same period of previous years. As of zero o’clock on September 11, 160 local cases have been reported, of which Qingyuan City has 14 high-density monitoring points at dengue vector Aedes mosquitoes larvae monitoring points. How high is the epidemic situation in the past? In fact, as early as the year before last, last year, Although the author did not fight with his CDC colleagues in Guangdong, But you can also see the clue from your circle of friends. Since June of the past two years, Guangdong local disease control personnel, I was so busy from top to bottom that my head smoked. It is said that I work overtime every day and have no rest for several weekends in a row. CDC personnel are looking forward to cooling down every day. In 2014, Until November, Guangdong Province only announced that the epidemic peak of that year had passed, the local dengue fever epidemic was effectively controlled, and the number of reported cases decreased significantly. Throughout the epidemic period, A total of 20 prefecture-level cities in the province have reported more than 42,000 cases of dengue fever. According to past epidemic control experience, September, now this time, is the critical period of high incidence and prevention and control of dengue fever. Why is dengue fever high in the past year or two? Many medical workers are curious that dengue fever was not so high before. Why is it that disease control and prevention work is invested so much every year, but the epidemic situation is still high every year? Through an informal interview with the CDC emergency department, It is probably inferred that there are several reasons: 1. The international epidemic situation is high. In fact, not only China but also the global dengue fever epidemic is rising. It is reported that Malaysia’s epidemic situation this year increased 41% over the same period last year, and Brazil’s reported cases in March increased 162% over the same period last year. The epidemic situation in China’s neighboring countries in the past two years is also very serious. Japan, Singapore and other places have reported outbreaks of dengue fever this year. International travel has become very popular in recent years, For dengue fever, The spread of the disease becomes very easy, The boundaries of the region have become very blurred. 2. Warm winter has led to an early outbreak of the epidemic. According to experts from Guangdong Provincial Disease Control and Prevention Bureau, The occurrence time of the first local infection case in Guangdong Province this year (reported on April 11) was more than 2 months earlier than that of 5 years ago (mostly in June and July). The peak of the disease in the whole province may be earlier than in previous years. However, according to the local monitoring data in Guangdong Province in recent years, Imported cases of dengue fever begin to occur in April each year, local cases may occur around July, and then reach a peak until around November, when the temperature decreases, the epidemic situation will not decrease. The higher the temperature in the past winter, the more mosquitoes will overwinter. The more mosquitoes overwinter, the faster the mosquito density will rise in that year, and the earlier the dengue fever epidemic may occur. How can mosquito density be monitored and reduced? 3. The proportion of recessive infection and dominant infection in dengue fever epidemic is 2.2: 1. That is to say, Of the three dengue patients, Two may not have typical symptoms of dengue fever. These asymptomatic patients, But still have the ability to spread the disease, They will move freely in the crowd, It has become a hidden worry of transmission. Recessive infection is of great significance to the outbreak of dengue fever. 4. Some presumed factors have not been confirmed. But the reason can be straightened out logically. (1) The propaganda method is relatively backward. Although the disease control department has also considered using various new media means to promote disease control information in recent years, However, as a former CDC staff member, At the same time, as a member of Dr. Clove’s professional science popularization team, I have compared the production process of science popularization information of these two types of teams. To be sure, science popularization is a job that requires a lot of energy and intelligence. The working methods of many disease control departments are still as follows: find children [part-time] with inexperienced work qualifications to take up the information release work; Before the release of the information, after layers of review and leadership review, the content is suitable for professionals, rigorous, but [not grounded]; The channel of release is very limited. After a lot of efforts, the coverage of information is actually very low. In short, it has not achieved very good publicity effect. Direct cooperation with ready-made platforms may be an effective way to rapidly expand influence. (2) People [disobedience]? Unlike before, At the command of the government department, We will no longer carry out the Patriotic Health Campaign in great numbers. We will complete the Patriotic Health Campaign as a task. At the command of the government department, Everyone just [worked hard]. But in fact, If such activities are not carried out as routine work, Just do it once in a while, The results are generally not very good. Now it is more and more difficult for the public to mobilize. In addition to the living habits of Guangdong residents themselves, Planting flowers, growing grass, It is the pleasure of life, It is difficult to change at the moment, Mosquito breeding is still difficult to eliminate. (3) Statistical bias in addition, Some disease control departments have enhanced their ability to find the disease, and some disease control departments have no experience in controlling the disease. There are weak links in prevention and control, All are logically possible factors. The improvement of diagnostic ability, the attention of medical staff, the improvement of disease management system and the enhancement of treatment awareness of some residents will make recessive infection or atypical infection more discovered and registered. From the data point of view, it may appear more severe than before. What should I do from now on? As disease control personnel, they began to prepare for the severe work in the future. Clinical workers should actively understand the diagnosis and treatment methods related to dengue fever. If you see the article as a media or do not engage in any work related to dengue fever, do two things: forward the article, clear the accumulated water in your home, and prevent mosquitoes together!